Genisys: In the beginning man made machine

Following on from my post last week about the end of the IT Industry, I thought I’d elaborate on my thinking and logic a bit further.

If you have a diverse skill set or work in application support, business integration, business analysis, data analysis or a business partner role then you’re probably safer than most. However, the aforementioned jobs are going to come under increasing threat from all the infrastructure and traditional IT jobs that people will soon be made redundant from. Traditional IT infrastructure jobs are going to diminish, so only the highest skilled will survive and as a result of this market saturation, pay in the IT industry will suffer as a consequence.

In last weeks post I wasn’t saying that IT is going to die a death, I was stating that a big change is coming to the IT industry and that people who currently think they are well paid and have job security are going to get a shock sooner than they think. Change is now inevitable. Companies like Google, Amazon and Microsoft have already laid the foundations. They already eat their own dog food, so ‘they’ know the model works. Now it’s just about mass adoption and Gartner adoption curve.

We have witnessed similar events in our coal mining, car manufacturing and textile industries. These industries still exist but economies of scale, mass automation and cheap foreign labour have dramatically changed the landscape over the last century.

IT professionals work in an industry that has consistently proved Moore’s law true and where the internet has only existed for 20 years. In context 5 years is a long time in this industry. 10 years ago desktop computers and CRT monitors were still the norm, today we are at the end of the laptop era and starting to embrace the mobile / tablet era and BYOD (bring your own device) era.

I think too often IT believe they run the business. Businesses doesn’t understand IT so it has to trust what they are told by IT Directors and Managers. Historically this has been that IT is very complicated because it is presented in a very ‘smoke and mirrors’ kind of way. When business owners and FD’s start to realise that they can simply subscribe to the services that they need, when they need them, then they will also realise that they don’t need an IT department in its current form any more. Change will happen and will happen quickly because there is a lot of money to be saved and the people in charge of the purse strings will become more and more empowered and less and less reliant on what IT tell them.

With change comes new possibilities and opportunities to make money…

Moreover, ISVs (independent software vendors) will begin to transition from traditional enterprise ‘fat’ clients that need constant support and management to ‘thin’ Apps that don’t, like we have seen on the iPhone / iPad. Users have already ‘spoken’ and stated that they want this because they already bring their iPads to work, even though they don’t actually work, at work, yet. This paradigm shift will be transitioned using application virtualization (AppV), which has been around for a few years now, and will bridge that gap between the old ‘fat’ client world and the new ‘thin’ cloud world.

This new ‘thin’ cloud world officially begins on the 29th July 2015 when Microsoft release Windows 10 and their new App Store. I’ve previously posted why Windows 10 is more complex than you may think and Microsoft are betting their entire future on their current cloud strategy. They are so confident in their business model shifting from OS and Office applications to cloud service subscriptions that they are willing to give Windows 10 and ‘thin’ Office Apps away for free. If this isn’t a big enough clue then I don’t know what is. Personally I don’t see Microsoft failing because they are too big and too good at what they do. Plus there is no one in a global position that is ready to replace them, but Microsoft aren’t alone. I’m just using Microsoft as an example of a tier 1 organisation because we all know them. Many other ISVs are already making this transition and preparing for the new ‘thin’ cloud world.

I’m so confident on this shift happening over the next 5 years that I’ll bet my own career on it.

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